A Study on a Theory of Change
This paper analyses the correlation between economic foundations and stability in the context of fragile states and the Message on Switzerland’s International Cooperation in 2013–2016. The analysis will focus on three indicators of the Peacebuilding and Statebuilding Goal Nr 4: equality, employment and natural resource management. It will be examined whether it can be theoretically and empirically confirmed that an improvement of the mentioned indicators will lead to more stability. From a theoretical point of view the examined correlation could be confirmed, however, empirically there is little evidence for drawing an universalistic conclusion that confirms a direct positive impact of equality, employment and natural resource management on stability. The main reasons for lacking empirical evidence are the varying contexts of the analysed states and overlapping effects of different policies.